Will the Youth Voice Reach America’s Politicians? | Dispatches from the Potomac

Dispatches from the Potomac#49 | Will the Youth Voice Reach America’s Politicians?
Pre-Election Disengagement from the Democrats LoomsPre-Election Disengagement from the Democrats Looms

This is a translation of an article originally written in May 2024 for publication in the July 2024 edition of the Marubeni Group Magazine, M-SPIRIT.

General Manager, Washington DC Office, Marubeni America Corporation Yusuke Inoue

College Campuses Rocked by Protests

With the U.S. presidential election less than half a year away, many eyes are on American college campuses, where students are protesting against Israel’s offensive in Gaza. Many student protestors have set up tents on campus premises, with some schools calling in the police to break up the encampments. In the blink of an eye, protests have spread to more and more campuses, and over 3,000 people have been arrested. Though May is graduation season for U.S. colleges and universities, several schools have already announced they are canceling their ceremonies due to safety concerns. This may well be the second major ceremony members of the class of 2024 will miss, as many of them graduated high school at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Many younger Americans are sympathetic to the devastation that Palestinians are facing, quite a different position from that of the U.S. government and older generations, whose values have traditionally tended to lean toward supporting Israel. On top of this, the younger an American is, the more likely they are to be wary of U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern affairs, generally preferring to focus on domestic, rather than international, affairs. This divide over ideas about the direction the U.S. should take has undeniably contributed to young people’s distrust of politics, and their anger is clearly being directed toward the current Biden administration.

Whether these protests will gradually die down or continue until the November election will be the focus of attention in the presidential race. As this will largely depend on the course of the situation in the Middle East itself, attempting to predict the protests’ outcome now presents a challenge. Some, however, are wary of a repeat of 1968, when anti-Vietnam War protesters swarmed the Democratic National Convention and defeated the Democrats in the presidential election. At the time, the U.S. was in the midst of turmoil—then-President Johnson had withdrawn from his reelection bid due to a split in the Democratic Party, while Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. (a leader of the civil rights movement) and Senator Robert F. Kennedy (who was running for the Democratic presidential nomination) had been assassinated. Comparing those days, when young people were facing the fear of being drafted, to circumstances today is a bit of a stretch, but, oddly enough, the Democratic National Convention scheduled for this August will be held in Chicago, just as it was then.

Will Young Voters Abandon the Democrats?

Looking back, the voting behavior of young people has tended toward favoring Democratic candidates for over thirty years, since the 1992 election of President Clinton, and young voters today are still considered a core component of the Democratic voter base. Overall, younger generations are more liberal in their ideology. They are concerned about discrimination against minorities and protecting the rights of marginalized populations, and are also critical of the current political and social divisions in the United States. These views have much in common with the ideals of the Democratic Party, which values diversity and is perceived as a more open party. The party has also produced a generation of relatively young leaders, such as former President Barack Obama, who was first elected in 2008.

Polls indicate that young people’s top concerns include environmental issues, such as climate change mitigation; protecting abortion rights; and reducing crime, including by implementing stricter gun control. These concerns are also consistent with the policy areas emphasized by the Democratic Party. The Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, which had protected abortion rights under federal law for nearly 50 years, just before the 2022 midterm elections drove many young voters to the polls, resulting in the Democrats retaining their majorities in both houses of Congress—a political memory that remains fresh in many Americans’ minds.

Even so, there are indicators that young people are moving away from the Democratic Party. One reason for this may be President Biden himself: At over 80 years of age, he is older than the grandparents of voters in their 20s, making it unsurprising that some young voters consider him unrelatable. Biden has not often been seen traveling around the country to actively listen to young people, either. With his Republican opponent, Donald Trump, being nearly as old, young people have been left without a prominent candidate who can speak for them, yet another factor contributing to their distrust of politics.

Younger generations are also dissatisfied with the current economic situation. Their lower incomes and inflation-induced lower purchasing power have become major sources of stress. Many in their 20s have relatively fewer assets and are thus not fully benefiting from the rising prices of assets like housing and stocks. At the same time, high housing prices and interest rates are making it more challenging than ever to acquire a home. Saddled with student loans that will take decades to repay, young Americans today also find it difficult to envision their future careers in the midst of fierce competition. Meanwhile, some are struggling with maintaining offline person-to-person relationships amidst the constant flood of all sorts of information from social media, a situation that invites constant comparisons with others and a destabilization of internal emotional balance.

All these elements of dissatisfaction have built up among young people, creating a vague sense of disengagement with the Democrats and prompting an increasing number of young people to turn toward conservative ideology. If these circumstances continue, there is a distinct possibility that the conventional image of “young voters = Democrats” will change. Whether American politicians will listen to the voices of the next generation and reflect them in their policies remains to be seen, but is certainly an issue worth watching.