As mentioned in the first edition^* of this column, the inauguration ceremony of former President Obama was held in January 2009. At that time the US was facing a serious financial crisis, the situation in both the market and the economy was as frigid as the weather on inauguration day. A crowd of approximately 1.8 million people attended, the highest ever recorded at an inauguration ceremony, evidence of an expectation that the revitalization of the US was being staked on President Obama.

The Obama administration fulfilled those expectations to some extent. With economic and monetary stabilization measures by the administration and super-quantitative easing by the FRB, the stock market prices, which had been plunging, bottomed out in the spring of 2009, and the economy started on a recovery trend a few months later. The economic expansion that began then is still continuing today. The Obama administration and the FRB should be receiving greater recognition for achieving even a moderate economic recovery for the US economy that was facing the fear of a second Great Depression.

Nevertheless, it is significant that the evaluation by voters was not so high. This economic recovery has mainly benefited corporations and those in the high-income brackets, while the majority of American citizens in the middle-income brackets or lower have been unable to feel any sense of recovery. For the Obama administration and the Democratic Party, the political costs were enormous, leading to a series of poor results in congressional elections and a defeat in the presidential election in 2016.

The policy of continuing super monetary easing and encouraging the leveraging of asset prices was an appropriate response to the serious financial crisis at that time. In fact, it was probably the only option. The miscalculation of the previous administration was that these measures did not have a ripple effect to a wide range of sectors or lead to an acceleration of economic expansion, with corporate management becoming more conservative, and a widening gap between household income levels. The recovery of employment was also slow, with the unemployment rate remaining high at around 8% just prior to the presidential election in 2012. It would not have been surprising if this had prevented Mr. Obama from being re-elected.

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In this way, the switch of power to President Trump can be regarded as an indication that the US is in a period of transition, and is still searching for a way to move forward. The plan of the Trump administration to simply deny change and refute Mr. Obama can hardly be considered an appropriate solution. The divisions that grew under the Obama administration will not be eliminated under the Trump regime. The Democratic Party has not yet found a direction to follow after the Trump administration either. Change will continue, including the aging of society, increases in the non-white population, the increasing presence of the Millennial generation, and a decline in US military and economic presence globally. Unfortunately, it appears that the aimless wandering of the US will continue for some time. However, I do not think that there will be another country to take over the leadership of the US worldwide, even in the very long-term. It is likely that the world, including Japan, will also flounder until the US finds a suitable path.

Nevertheless, the US has a history of finding and implementing appropriate ways to navigate change through thought and discussion. It is too early to say that this dynamism has been lost, so we must see what changes occur during this transition period. For the Marubeni Group it is crucial to continue to detect and follow the signs of such changes in Washington D.C., at the frontline of US politics. This important role is entrusted to the Washington Office, which is under the leadership of General Manager Yoichi Mineo from October this year. I end the final column of my eight-year term with great expectations that the good fight will continue.

Finally, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to the readers who have been following this column over the years. I am sure you will continue to enjoy the column from General Manager Mineo starting in the next issue.